The presidential race is likely to be decided by these states. On the Trail. See where Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are campaigning. Key Issues. Here is where the candidates stand on pressing ... Donald Trump had hoped to exploit President Biden’s weaknesses and pick off Democratic-leaning Virginia and Minnesota. But against Kamala Harris, he is back to banking on a Sun Belt swing state ... The probability of each outcome below, according to our simulations. Harris wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) 8 out of 100. Trump wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) 1 out of 100. Harris wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes. 41 out of 100. Trump wins the Electoral College with <350 ... 48% Trump Trump. 49% Harris Harris. Nate Cohn Chief political analyst. It’s Election Day, and the polls show one of the closest presidential races in the history of American politics. Nationwide ... Trump wins Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, flipping all three states from 2020. Harris carries the Rust Belt. Harris wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, matching Biden’s 2020 outcome in those states. Use our "what-if" tool to pick a winner in each state and see how it would change 538's 2024 presidential election forecast. The possible election of the first female president, a broad backlash against Trump, the fall of Roe v. Wade and more have played big parts in stretching the gap in Harris' favor among women. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the full methodology here. On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024. Line chart showing voting intention in national polls between Harris and Trump since the Trump-Biden debate on June 27. Kamala Harris 48.9 Donald Trump 47.6. Source: FT research, FiveThirtyEight • Latest poll Nov 3. In US Presidential elections, national polls are merely indicators, because the overall winner is decided using the electoral ... Kamala Harris. Democratic Party. 48.0 48.8 49.6. Donald Trump. Republican Party. 47.0 47.8 48.5. T he race for the White House is in its last stretch. Turnout in early voting is off to a roaring ...
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