This chart shows how the polling margin in Pennsylvania has changed over the course of the campaign, first for the Biden vs. Trump matchup, and now for Harris vs. Trump. The latest poll finds Harris and Trump roughly even with independent likely voters – Harris at 45% to Trump at 41% - with a gender gap that is centered among independents. The latest NBC News national poll shows Harris leading Trump 49%-44%, within the margin of error, while Trump holds advantages on the economy, inflation and the border. An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls,... Nationwide or across the key battlegrounds collectively, neither Kamala Harris nor Donald J. Trump leads by more than a single percentage point. Who’s ahead in the national polls? Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Mr. Trump showed his strength early, winning states like Texas and Florida easily and defying recent polls, such as one in Iowa, that seemed to show a surge of support for Ms Harris. Trump leads Harris 54 percent to 45 percent among white voters, but her 9-point deficit is a slight improvement over the 12-point advantage Trump had with this group in 2020. We track polls from across the country and synthesise them to measure the state of the race. After she took over the Democratic nomination from Joe Biden, Ms Harris’s standing rose.
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