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Where that is not applicable, the most recent 2024 presidential election poll is used. The average methodology is summarized below the table. The default view is Harris vs. Trump head-to-head. To view averages including 3rd party candidates, select the checkbox near the candidate names. For legacy polling, visit the Biden vs. Trump page. About this data Note: Head-to-head average shown for the Biden vs. Trump matchup. The Harris vs. Trump average includes polls conducted before Biden announced he was dropping out of the race and ... And check here soon after the first polls close at 6pm EST / 11pm GMT on November 5th for live results ... Donald Trump and Joe Biden up until July 21st, when Mr Biden withdrew from the election ... About this data Note: Head-to-head average shown for the Biden vs. Trump matchup. The Harris vs. Trump average includes polls conducted before Biden announced he was dropping out of the race and ... 48% Trump Trump. 49% Harris Harris. Nate Cohn Chief political analyst. It’s Election Day, and the polls show one of the closest presidential races in the history of American politics. Nationwide ... Despite all that, likely voters surveyed in this poll greatly resemble the 2020 electorate, which backed President Joe Biden with 51 percent of the popular vote to Trump’s 47 percent. Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Aug. 1, 2024 Sept. 1 Oct. 1 Nov. 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60% Harris 48.0% Trump 46.8% Nov. 5, 2024 leader Nov. 5, 2024 leader Harris Harris +1.2. KEY. ESTIMATE. 95% OF AVERAGES PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE. Follow live updates on the 2024 election. ... That’s a significant change from the final 2020 NBC News poll, when Biden was ahead of Trump by more than 20 points among these voters. Trump and ... The probability of each outcome below, according to our simulations. Harris wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) 8 out of 100. Trump wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) 1 out of 100. Harris wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes. 41 out of 100. Trump wins the Electoral College with <350 ...

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