This page displays the current 270toWin Polling Average for each state. Where that is not applicable, the most recent 2024 presidential election poll is used. The average methodology is summarized below the table. The default view is Harris vs. Trump head-to-head. Our polling averages track the latest trends in the presidential race, using data from national and battleground state polls. Dive into the most comprehensive collection of polls across the nation, forecast the presidency, House, and Senate outcomes, and explore detailed results for every primary and general... This is an electoral map based on the Kalshi prediction market odds for the 2024 presidential election. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the market likelihood of winning increases: Toss-up (<60%), Leans (60%+), Likely (80%+), Safe (95%+). 538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes. Harris wins 50 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election. It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter. Use the buttons below the map to share your forecast or embed it into a web page. Who’s ahead in the national polls? Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Kamala Harris moved into a narrow lead in our final update, with her chance of winning rising from 50% to 56%. With no time left before the election, our model reacts sharply to the latest data.
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