Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Aug. 1, 2024 Sept. 1 Oct. 1 Nov. 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60% Harris 48.0% Trump 46.8% Nov. 5, 2024 leader Nov. 5, 2024 leader Harris Harris +1.2. KEY. ESTIMATE. 95% OF AVERAGES PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE. Harris is up 49%-48% in the latest HarrisX/Forbes poll of likely voters released Thursday—but some 10% of likely voters and 16% of all registered voters could still change their minds. Harris ... Democratic Party. 48.0 48.8 49.6. Donald Trump. Republican Party. 47.0 47.8 48.5. T he race for the White House is in its last stretch. Turnout in early voting is off to a roaring start. The two ... 50%. Nov. 5. 48% Trump Trump. 49% Harris Harris. Nate Cohn Chief political analyst. It’s Election Day, and the polls show one of the closest presidential races in the history of American ... The probability of each outcome below, according to our simulations. Harris wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) 8 out of 100. Trump wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) 1 out of 100. Harris wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes. 41 out of 100. Trump wins the Electoral College with <350 ... Kamala Harris moved into a narrow lead in our final update, with her chance of winning rising from 50% to 56%. With no time left before the election, our model reacts sharply to the latest data ... Line chart showing voting intention in national polls between Harris and Trump since the Trump-Biden debate on June 27. Kamala Harris 48.9 Donald Trump 47.6. Source: FT research, FiveThirtyEight • Latest poll Nov 3. In US Presidential elections, national polls are merely indicators, because the overall winner is decided using the electoral ... State. Cycle. An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read more about the methodology. This page displays the current 270toWin Polling Average for each state. Where that is not applicable, the most recent 2024 presidential election poll is used. The average methodology is summarized below the table. The default view is Harris vs. Trump head-to-head. To view averages including 3rd party candidates, select the checkbox near the ...
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