Donald Trump, Elon Musk and CNN have cited election predictions from Polymarket, a betting site where crypto enthusiasts have wagered more than $100 million on who will win the presidency. Two national polls released Sunday show an ultra-close race with Vice President Kamala Harris just barely in the lead, while a third poll shows her tied with former President Donald Trump. As of Monday at 8 a.m. EST, Trump's probability of winning stood at 58% on Polymarket, a crypto trading platform. That's also about win probability on two major U.K. betting platforms,... With vote counting underway, the world’s largest prediction market, Polymarket, now shows the odds of Donald Trump winning the election at 79%, with Kamala Harris at 21%. According to Polymarket ... The blockchain-based election betting site Polymarket priced in a 60% chance of a Trump victory, breaking the 60% threshold for the first time since late July, days after President Joe Biden... 1:43. Since Sept. 1, more than 102,000 Polymarket users have bet on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States, propelling Trump’s likelihood of... So at the current odds, a contract for Trump would cost about $0.57 and one for Harris roughly $0.44 on Robinhood, with the same binary $0 or $1 return offered for each contract. Election betting ... The central question of whether Harris or former President Donald Trump would win the presidential election saw $3.2 billion Polymarket bets as of Election Day. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the market likelihood of winning increases: Tilt (<60%), Leans (60%+), Likely (80%+), Safe (90%+). Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
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